Helixtap Monthly Production and Consumption Analysis: Consumption data indicative that Chinese demand not yet above pre-pandemic levels
Since 2021, the core producer group of countries have mostly recorded a year-over-year increase in 22 out of the 27 months of available data. This group of countries include Thailand, Indonesia, Vietnam, China, India, Ivory Coast and Malaysia. They are selected and featured in IRSG monthly report updates.
Due to wintering, production throughout the years follows a seasonal pattern, decreasing yearly from February till May. Overall production for these countries has trended upward over time, producing the highest year-long average of 1 million tons of rubber a month in 2022. This year till April, production averaged about 935,000 tons each month. Although this value is lower than last year’s average, it still needs to be seen as the first few months of the year include seasonally low production from February till around May.
Production during these first months in 2023 was reported to range from 0% to 1% YoY decrease over January, March and April. Data for February is not yet available as of end-June 2023. As reported, there has not yet been any significant decrease in production from the same months last year, even though both physical prices and the futures have been trading in a lower range this year. Current IRSG forecasts indicate that production from major producers for Q2 2023 would be at about the same level, increasing by about 4,000 tons or 0.1% to 2.8 million tons.